Bill Corbet in Rick’s Room
Understanding the Current Market
In this episode of Rick’s Room, host Rick Grant sits down with Bill Corbet, Managing Partner at BlackFin Group, to discuss career evolution, market resilience, and the forces shaping the mortgage industry in late 2025.
Corbet reflects on his 23-year tenure at Citizens Bank, where he held nearly every role on the origination side before joining BlackFin. He was drawn to consulting as a way to share his experience with a broader industry and to work closely with community banks and credit unions. At BlackFin, he and CEO Keith Kemph have built a consultancy focused on tactical, results-oriented projects rather than lengthy engagements—delivering value quickly and leaving clients stronger after every engagement.
Rick and Bill dive deep into current market conditions. Corbet clarifies a common misconception: the Federal Reserve doesn’t control mortgage rates—the bond market does. He explains how long-term Treasuries, inflation expectations, and global economic pressures—particularly from Europe—are influencing rates more than Fed actions. He also warns that while lower rates excite many, they often signal economic weakness, not strength.
Looking ahead, Corbet predicts 2026 will show moderate improvement over 2025, noting that the extreme highs of 2020–2021 pulled forward years of origination volume. He sees slow but steady normalization driven by demographic demand, modest price adjustments, and life events that keep the housing market moving. His advice for lenders: stay nimble and ready to act fast when short-term opportunities arise, such as mini refinance waves.
The conversation closes with a shared optimism—cautious but confident—that the mortgage industry’s toughest years are behind it.
Show Highlights:
Rick Grant: Welcome back to Rick’s Room, the show where we recreate the best part of a business conference—the late-day conversation where you finally get to connect with someone you’ve been meaning to talk to all along. Today, I’m joined by Bill Corbet, Managing Partner at BlackFin Group. Many know Bill from his long tenure at Citizens Bank, where he did just about everything you can do in a mortgage bank. Bill, thanks for joining me.
Bill Corbett: Thanks, Rick. Great to be here.
I spent 23 years at Citizens, and over that time the bank grew from a regional to a super-regional institution. As it grew, I found myself enjoying it less. I wanted to do something new—something that would let me share what I’d learned with a wider segment of the industry.
Through a mutual acquaintance, I met Keith Kemph, and we connected instantly. Keith has incredible energy and vision, and it quickly became clear that we wanted to build something together. That led me to BlackFin Group, where I now focus on helping community banks and credit unions benefit from the kind of large-scale operational experience I gained at Citizens.
Rick: Keith’s great—he’s built quite a reputation. You launched during a turbulent time: the highs of 2020–2021, followed by one of the harshest downturns we’ve ever seen. Yet you’ve stayed busy helping lenders. How?
Bill: Those early years were actually tough in their own way. Lenders knew they needed help, but they were too busy to stop and plan. Then when the market cooled, budgets dried up.
So we pivoted—became more tactical. Instead of massive, open-ended engagements, we focused on short, high-impact projects. We get in, solve a specific problem, and get out. If clients bring us back, great—but the goal is to deliver exactly what they need without camping on their P&L.
Rick: Let’s talk about the market. Everyone says rates will drop once the Fed “figures it out,” but few understand the real mechanics. What’s your take?
Bill: The key thing people miss is this: the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates. The bond market does—specifically the five-, seven-, and ten-year Treasuries.
We’ve seen several counter-cyclical moments where the Fed cuts rates, and mortgage rates actually rise. That’s because long-term investors are pricing in inflation expectations and global economic risks—especially from Europe.
Right now, the Fed is signaling moderation, not aggression. They’re aiming for a neutral stance, possibly trimming 75–100 basis points over time. But the bond market isn’t fully buying it yet.
Rick: So you still have faith in the system?
Bill: I do. The bond market serves as a check on the Fed. If the Fed gets too aggressive, markets will correct. It’s almost a self-healing system.
That said, people cheering for dramatically lower rates should remember—those rates usually come with economic weakness. If you’re rooting for 3% mortgages again, you’re effectively betting against the U.S. economy.
Rick: As lenders plan for 2026, are you optimistic?
Bill: Cautiously, yes. I think 2026 will be better than 2025—not a boom, but a step up. The massive volume from 2020–2021 pulled demand forward, and it’ll take years to normalize.
Still, we’re seeing positive signs: moderating prices, steady employment, and life events that keep people moving—death, divorce, relocation. Those are inevitable drivers of activity.
My advice to lenders? Be nimble. When rates dip and mini refi waves hit, act within days, not quarters. Opportunities now move fast.
Rick: Excellent insight, Bill. I’m sorry it took me so long to have you on the show, but clearly, I’ll need to bring you back.
Bill: Thanks, Rick. I’d love that.
