Kevin Breeland in Rick’s Room
The Mortgage Market in 2026
In this episode of Rick’s Room, host Rick Grant welcomes Kevin Breeland, Mortgage Development Officer and Loan Originator for Happy Mortgage, a division of Happy State Bank.
With more than two decades in the business and deep roots in Texas real estate, Kevin offers an on-the-ground view of the housing market’s current state – and the challenges facing both lenders and borrowers as the industry moves toward 2026.
Breeland explains that across Texas – from Austin to Houston to the Panhandle – the once-frenzied market has cooled, creating a more balanced environment where buyers have regained some negotiating power. Homes are taking longer to sell, and concessions are returning to the table, a shift he says benefits both sides when handled fairly.
Affordability, however, remains the central challenge. Breeland notes that while many consumers fixate on interest rates, they underestimate the impact of taxes and insurance. Property taxes and rising homeowner insurance costs have dramatically increased overall monthly payments. Even with expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, affordability pressures will persist until insurance and property tax burdens ease.
He highlights Texas’s recent property tax reforms, including increases in the homestead exemption from $40,000 to $140,000, which have provided some relief. Still, he cautions that those gains are being offset by soaring insurance costs – even in inland areas like the Panhandle – where premiums can exceed $2,500 annually on modest homes.
Looking ahead, Breeland expects 2026 to be an improvement over 2025, but not a dramatic rebound. He stresses the importance of realistic expectations, especially in high-cost markets like Austin, where median home prices exceed $400,000 and many families earn under $100,000 annually.
Despite the headwinds, Breeland remains optimistic. Homeownership, he says, is still a cornerstone of the American dream – a key to generational wealth and lasting legacy. “Legacy isn’t about an eight-digit bank account,” he shares. “It’s about family – building something that lasts when everyone comes home.”
Show Highlights:
Rick Grant: Hi, and welcome back to Rick’s Room. These are the end-of-the-day conversations we all love having at conferences – the kind where you finally sit down and talk about what really matters.
Today, my guest is Kevin Breeland, Mortgage Development Officer and Loan Originator for Happy Mortgage, a division of Happy State Bank. Kevin, thanks for joining me.
Kevin Breeland: Thanks, Rick. That’s very kind of you. Not many people would accuse me of being smart, but I’ll take it!
Rick: You’ve been an officer of national trade associations, worked for top lenders, and have done just about everything in mortgage origination. You’re right on the front line, working with borrowers. What’s the market like right now?
Kevin: It’s definitely slower, but that’s not all bad news. I’d say it’s a buyer’s market. Homes are staying on the market longer, which gives buyers more negotiating power. Across Texas – in Houston, Austin, Dallas, and the Panhandle – I’m seeing that consistently.
Rick: Austin used to move at lightning speed. Has that cooled down too?
Kevin: Yes, quite a bit. Some pockets still move fast if a home is priced right, but overall the pace has slowed. Buyers can now get concessions that were unheard of three years ago. That’s good for both sides – sellers want to sell, buyers want to buy. It’s about balance.
Rick: Let’s talk affordability. Consumers often focus on rates, but the full picture is much more complex. What are people missing?
Kevin: Many buyers underestimate total costs. They plug numbers into an online calculator, see a $2,800 monthly payment, and think they’re set. But taxes and insurance can add another $600 to $1,200. Suddenly, that’s a $4,000 payment.
Homeowners insurance costs have doubled or tripled in many areas, so even if the Fed lowers rates, affordability won’t dramatically improve. The market usually prices in those cuts before they happen.
Rick: So you’re not expecting big changes right away?
Kevin: Not immediately. The Fed’s next move is already baked into market expectations. I think we’ll see one more cut in December, setting up for a better 2026, but affordability will remain tight.
Rick: What are your expectations for 2026?
Kevin: I think it’ll be better than 2025, but not booming. Affordability is still the main challenge, especially in Austin where the median home price is above $400,000 and most families make under $100,000 a year. A $4,000 monthly payment just isn’t realistic for many households.
Rick: Texas has been working on property tax relief, right?
Kevin: Yes. The homestead exemption went from $40,000 to $100,000, and now it’s $140,000. That helps – I’ve seen bills where the assessed value is higher but the total tax owed is lower. Still, insurance costs are eating into those savings. Even in inland areas, a $150,000 home can cost $2,500 a year to insure.
Rick: You’ve been through hailstorms and tornadoes in Texas, so you know the risks. Despite all that, you still believe in homeownership as part of the American dream.
Kevin: Absolutely. Homeownership builds generational wealth and family legacy. Legacy isn’t about being a millionaire – it’s about family, community, and building something that lasts. For me, it’s about those Sunday dinners when everyone comes home. That’s what lasts.
Rick: Beautifully said, Kevin. Thanks so much for being here.
Kevin: Thank you, Rick. Great talking with you.
